A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
